中美贸易摩擦下，油脂走势何去何从？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, and the fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, with short - term prices expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29] - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to strengthen after November. Soybean oil prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty for rapeseed oil [2][30] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Short - term situation: The MPOB September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October data showed continued production growth and weakened export demand, leading to rising inventory. However, the upcoming traditional减产 season in Southeast Asia in November, uncertainties in Indonesian production, and the progress of the B50 test provide bullish support. It is expected that the price will have limited fluctuations in October and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5][6] - Malaysian situation: The September inventory reached a five - year high of 2.36 million tons. The production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, and the export growth from October 1 - 20 was lower than that from October 1 - 15. The inventory is expected to rise in October, but the time for further inventory accumulation is limited [6] - Indonesian situation: In July, the inventory was relatively low at 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the nationalization of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, with an expected demand increase of 3 - 4 million tons of palm oil. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2025 [9] - Domestic situation: After the National Day holiday, the palm oil inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575,700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11] - Medium - to - long - term outlook: Starting from November, the traditional减产 season in Southeast Asia, combined with the B50 news and domestic de - stocking expectations, will help the palm oil price strengthen in the fourth quarter [14] Soybean Oil - Short - term situation: The short - term rebound of US soybeans is limited due to uncertain Sino - US trade relations, weak export demand, and lack of other bullish factors. The domestic soybean oil supply is also loose, and the short - term rebound is expected to be limited, with a fluctuating trend [15] - US soybean situation: There is a high probability of a decrease in the new - crop yield, and the domestic consumption is strong, but the export is uncertain, and the supply pressure will be large after the harvest. The short - term rebound of the 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16] - South American situation: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 11.1%, which was relatively fast. Currently, there is no short - term weather risk [20] - Domestic situation: The domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories have been at high levels. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be normal, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient [22] - Medium - to - long - term outlook: There are potential bullish factors, and the medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24] Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting domestic rapeseed oil. Since August, the domestic rapeseed arrivals have significantly decreased. Before November, the supply shortage cannot be solved, and after November, the supply tension may be partially alleviated, but the supply - demand imbalance remains [25][26] - Policy risk: There is room for policy softening in Canada. The recent meeting between China and Canada did not have a breakthrough, and the impact on rapeseed oil is limited. Continued attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27] Strategy - For the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, pay attention to the performance in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [2][30]