Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil). OPEC+ production increase and demand decline after the peak season, along with geopolitical factors, put pressure on the market. But with oil prices near the April low and net long positions at a low level, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil is still weakly oscillating. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today. The weekly construction rate decreased, demand was affected by weather, and the market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillated narrowly, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed to a slight premium [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially for in - transit crude oil. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil) [1]. - OPEC+ production increase and post - peak - season demand decline, along with geopolitical factors, brought supply - demand pressure. But the downward momentum may slow this week as oil prices are near the April low and net long positions are low [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost end with a weakly oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose due to geopolitical easing and other factors [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, with high arbitrage cargo volume from the West to Singapore and the effect of refinery operation recovery still to be observed [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near - month contracts relatively stronger. The weekly construction rate decreased, and demand was affected by cold in the north and rain in the south [3]. - The 10 - month demand is expected to be weaker than expected, and the commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillated narrowly, with far - month contracts under pressure. Supply increased slightly this week [3]. - Chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].
能源日报-20251021
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-21 12:18