2025年9月统计局房地产数据点评：房价同比降幅继续收窄，新开工边际改善

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience a decline in sales, with a cumulative sales area of 65,835 million square meters from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [11]. - New home and second-hand home prices have shown a narrowing decline, with the new home price index in 70 major cities decreasing by 2.7% year-on-year in September, a reduction in the rate of decline compared to previous months [5][17]. - Development investment remains under pressure, with cumulative investment of 67,706 billion yuan from January to September 2025, down 13.9% year-on-year [28]. Summary by Sections Sales - Cumulative sales area for January to September 2025 is 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a single-month sales area in September of 8,531 million square meters, down 10.5% [11]. - Cumulative sales amount for the same period is 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, with September's sales amount at 8,025 billion yuan, down 11.8% [11]. Prices - The new home price index in 70 major cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [5][17]. - The second-hand home price index also saw a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [24]. Development Investment - Cumulative development investment from January to September 2025 is 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, with September's investment at 7,397 billion yuan, down 21.3% [28]. - New construction area for the same period is 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed [29]. Investment Recommendations - The real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, with sales remaining low and fundamentals weakening. However, the construction of quality housing is expected to drive demand for quality and improved housing in the future [36].