中泰期货原糖周报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of logs is under obvious pressure, with an expected increase in arrivals in October. The demand has not shown a significant improvement, and the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the condition of increased arrivals and stable demand. The cost side still provides support, and it is recommended to try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, but pay attention to risk prevention. Short - term focus should be on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity [7][9][17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview - Supply - end: In September 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. The expected arrivals this week are expected to rebound, and the subsequent arrivals in October are still relatively concentrated [7] - Demand and Inventory - end: The demand has not shown a significant improvement, the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish, and there are no concentrated large orders. The market confidence is weak. With the increase in arrivals this week and stable demand, the inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate [9] - Price and Spread: The spot price is relatively stable, and the spread is also relatively stable. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 790 - 800 yuan per cubic meter on the disk [11][13] - Cost and Profit: The import cost has increased, the import profit has shrunk, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a volatile state. As the off - season approaches, the import cost is expected to return [15] - Strategy Recommendation: The spot is stable, and the demand - side sawmill orders are relatively weak. The fundamentals are weakly volatile, and the downstream demand is stable. Try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity in the short term [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the data of demand, supply, and inventory from June 2025 to October 2025, including daily average shipments, arrivals, arrival volumes, and total inventory, etc. [19] Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - end: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [25][27][30] - Demand - end: It includes the daily average shipment volume of logs, the real estate situation, and the downstream analysis of logs, such as the price and profit of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes. However, specific data details are not fully presented [34][36][41] - Inventory - end: It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data details are not fully presented [58][60][66] Part 4: Cost and Profit - It includes the import cost and profit of logs and the delivery profit of logs, but specific data details are not fully presented [72][77] Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log Outer - market Quotation: It shows the outer - market quotations of radiata pine and spruce, and the price and spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce, as well as the basis between radiata pine and LG and the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract. However, specific data details are not fully presented [82][85][95]