社零增速继续放缓，各平台双十一促销抢跑

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the new consumption sector, highlighting companies such as Gu Ming and Mixue Group, while suggesting attention to Da Mai Entertainment [3]. Core Insights - The growth rate of social retail sales continues to slow down, with September 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [4][11]. - The impact of national subsidies is diminishing, leading to a decline in consumption growth across various categories [5][9]. - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival has seen early promotions from platforms like JD and Douyin, indicating a competitive landscape [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Social Retail Sales Data - In September 2025, social retail sales reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [11]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 37,260 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year [11]. - The retail sales of food and beverages showed mixed results, with food sales increasing by 6.3% while beverage sales declined by 0.8% [11][15]. National Subsidy Impact - The report notes a significant reduction in the growth rate of categories benefiting from the "old for new" subsidy program, with categories like communication equipment and furniture showing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2% [9][12]. - The report anticipates continued pressure from high base effects in the coming months [9][10]. New Consumption Trends - New consumption categories are gaining traction, with gold jewelry sales increasing by 9.7% year-on-year due to rising gold prices [10][13]. - Sports and entertainment products also saw a robust growth of 11.9% year-on-year, reflecting consumer interest in outdoor activities [10][13]. Export Trends - In September 2025, China's export scale reached 328.57 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [33]. - However, the export of consumer goods has generally declined, with significant drops in categories such as home appliances and clothing [35][37]. Holiday Economy - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [41]. - Total domestic travel expenditure was 809 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous year [41].