兴业期货日度策略-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver [4] - Cautiously Bullish: Non - ferrous metals (Copper) [4] - Bearish: Crude oil, Polyolefins, Cotton [8][10] - Cautiously Bearish: Steel and ore (Rebar, Hot - rolled coil), Soda ash [6][8] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Non - ferrous metals (Aluminum, Nickel), Lithium carbonate, Silicon energy, Coal and coke, Glass, Methanol, Rubber, Palm oil [1][4][6] 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term sentiment fluctuates, but the long - term driving factors remain unchanged [1]. - Different varieties have different fundamentals. For example, precious metals are supported by safe - haven demand and the Fed's dovish signal, while industrial products are affected by supply - demand relationships and policy regulations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index and Treasury Bonds - Stock Index: The A - share market showed a high - opening and low - closing trend, with the ChiNext board leading the decline. The overall trading volume increased slightly. Sino - US trade frictions and the Fed's possible interest rate cut affect market sentiment. The stock index is in a sideways pattern, but there are opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market was strong in the afternoon. Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the Fed's dovish attitude strengthens the interest - rate cut expectation. The money market remains loose, and the bond market is in a sideways pattern [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Sino - US relations are tense, and the Fed Chairman's dovish signal boosts the price of gold. The short - term squeeze logic of silver amplifies market fluctuations. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and add new positions on pullbacks [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Sino - US trade negotiations are unclear, but the supply of copper concentrates in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight, supporting copper prices. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the Fed's dovish attitude weakens the US dollar. Alumina prices are falling, and the supply of Shanghai aluminum is restricted. The overall market is in a sideways pattern, with alumina showing a bearish fundamental pattern [4]. - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore is loose, but there are potential risks. The demand for nickel products is improving marginally. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a sideways pattern [4]. Chemicals and Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The actual supply increase is limited, and the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain in a dual - prosperous pattern. The overall market is in a sideways pattern, and the progress of mining enterprises in Yichun needs to be tracked [6]. - Industrial Silicon: There are rumors of policy regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, and the demand for industrial silicon may be reduced. The price may continue to weaken, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions [6]. - Crude Oil: The supply surplus expectation continues, and the upward driving force is weak. The price may remain weak [8]. - Methanol: There is demand support, and it is recommended to sell put options [2][8]. Steel and Ore - Rebar: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is accumulating. The risk of negative feedback in the steel industry chain is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions and sell call options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply and demand are both strong, but the inventory is increasing passively. The risk of negative feedback in the steel industry chain is rising. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - Iron Ore: The demand has support, but the risk of steel mills' production cuts is increasing. The supply is also affected by negotiations. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain sideways. The demand for coke may weaken, and the price is also in a sideways pattern [8]. Building Materials - Soda Ash: The supply exceeds demand, and the industry is accumulating inventory. It is recommended to hold short positions and sell on rebounds [8]. - Glass: The inventory pressure is high, and the probability of supply contraction is reduced. It is recommended to sell call options [8]. Agricultural Products - Polyolefins: The supply of polyolefins is excessive, and the price has been falling. It is recommended to hold long - short spread positions [10]. - Cotton: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may have limited room for rebound [10]. - Rubber: The raw material supply is increasing seasonally, but the demand remains supported. The price is in a sideways pattern with limited downside space [10]. - Palm Oil: The short - term price is affected by macro and market factors, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long [10].