2025年1-9月统计局房地产数据点评：量价延续调整趋势，Q4同比压力加大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience downward pressure on both volume and price, with significant year-on-year sales declines expected in Q4 due to high base effects. All 70 major cities have seen their second-hand housing price indices fall below last year's levels, indicating substantial pressure to stabilize prices. The necessity for incremental policy measures has increased, with conventional policies still having room for adjustment and extraordinary measures also being viable, albeit with timing uncertainties [2][12]. - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also recommends considering companies undergoing marginal improvements or debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading firms in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends present medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In September, the real estate market showed continued adjustment trends, with cumulative sales volume and value down 7.9% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively. The sales value for Q1, Q2, and Q3 saw declines of 2.1%, 8.3%, and 13.1%, with September's sales value and area down 11.8% and 10.5% year-on-year. The price indices for new and second-hand homes in September fell by 0.4% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing declines of 0.3% and 1.0% [12][13]. Construction and Investment Trends - New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with September's decline narrowing to 14.4%. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, but September recorded a 1.5% increase, indicating potential short-term fluctuations. The report anticipates continued double-digit declines in both construction and investment for 2025, with sales performance heavily reliant on future policy effectiveness [12][13]. Financial Position of Developers - Funding for real estate developers remains under pressure, with total funds received down 8.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw declines of 14.6% and 12.1% in September, respectively. Real estate development investment also fell by 13.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 21.3% in September, indicating a tightening of expenditure and potential impacts on construction and land acquisition costs [12][13].