资产配置日报：“霜”降-20251021

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a significant rebound on October 21, with the total A-share index rising by 1.62% and a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.65% and 1.26% respectively, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 1.171 billion HKD [1] Driving Factors - The market's rise was driven by three main factors: a reiteration of "stabilizing the market" in a publication by the Learning Times, increasing expectations for Trump's visit to China, and positive earnings reports from companies like CATL, which saw a 41.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment improved significantly compared to the previous day, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, as evidenced by the increase in trading volume and the performance of related sectors [2] - The concentration of trading volume rose to 44%, nearing the historical warning line of 45%, while the proportion of stocks with prices above their 95% historical percentile reached 16.5%, suggesting potential volatility in the ongoing thematic market [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has rebounded over two consecutive days, recovering from a significant drop on October 17. The technology sector, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is seen as undervalued after recent declines [3] - Short-term positives include expectations of improved US-China relations, while uncertainties remain regarding the impact of a strengthening US dollar on the Hong Kong market [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market also showed signs of recovery, with yields on medium to long-term government bonds declining by over 1 basis point. The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell to 1.76% and 2.07% respectively [3][4] - The core factor driving the bond market's shift from volatility to rapid recovery is the expectation of a loose monetary policy, with the central bank conducting a 159.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation [5] Commodity Market Trends - The domestic commodity market showed a cooling sentiment, with precious metals stabilizing after a recent pullback. Gold and silver prices rose by 2.02% and 0.20% respectively, while industrial metals exhibited flat performance [7] - The "anti-involution" theme-related commodities faced declines, particularly coking coal and coke, which dropped by 3.49% and 2.73% respectively, reflecting weak fundamentals [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests actively participating in thematic market trends while being cautious of structural risks. Key indicators to monitor include trading concentration and the proportion of high-priced stocks [2] - The potential for a rebound in the technology sector in Hong Kong is highlighted, with the current market conditions presenting a favorable entry point for long-term investments in AI and related industries [3]