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能源化工日报-20251022
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-22 00:44
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, it currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. - For PTA, supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, a 22.68% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, a 12.56% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels, an 8.20% increase [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. Fuel Oil - Market Information: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, a 0.17% decrease [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: No specific strategy viewpoint is provided other than for the overall energy market situation. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 13 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan, at 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6, at - 20 [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Import unloading is delayed due to port fees, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan decreased by 10 yuan. Most areas remained stable, with only a few areas seeing price drops. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan, at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 79. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5, at - 75 [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, affecting rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 18.70 percentage points from the previous week and 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.37%, up 23.50 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.73 percentage points from the same period last year. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025, a 0.7% decrease [8][9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract decreased by 3 yuan, at 4699 yuan. The spot price of SG - 5 in Changzhou was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 99 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan). The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.7%, down 5.9% from the previous period; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.7%, down 8.2%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.2%, down 8.6%. Factory inventory was 36 million tons (- 2.3 million tons), and social inventory was 103.4 million tons (- 0.3 million tons) [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of East China pure benzene decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5430 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5476 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract increased by 73 yuan/ton to 6438 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 38.81%, up 0.27% [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6883 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6975 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%, down 0.11%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45%, up 0.64%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract increased by 18 yuan/ton to 6583 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6615 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.04%. The LL - PP spread was 300 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [21][22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract increased by 64 yuan to 6332 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 1 dollar to 784 dollars. The basis was 78 yuan (- 59 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 10 yuan (+ 6 yuan). The Chinese PX load was 84.9%, down 2.5%; the Asian load was 78%, down 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 246 dollars (+ 5 dollars), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 dollars (- 11 dollars) [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The new PTA device commissioning expectation suppresses the PTA processing fee, making it difficult to deplete PX inventory. It currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract increased by 30 yuan to 4414 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4320 yuan. The basis was - 88 yuan (- 3 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 10 was 216 million tons, up 5.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 115 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 12 yuan to 260 yuan [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, leading to a slight inventory increase. The processing fee is difficult to expand due to weak forward expectations. The polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure in the demand side are low, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract increased by 1 yuan to 4004 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan to 4075 yuan. The basis was 74 yuan (+ 2 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (+ 4 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, up 2.5%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 5.3 million tons, and the East China departure on October 20 was 0.56 million tons. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 436 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 706 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 253 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price decreased to 780 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 660 yuan [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29].