山西证券研究早观点-20251022

Group 1: Coal Industry - In September 2025, coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production reaching 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate is declining [5] - Demand for coal is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment down 0.5% year-on-year, while thermal power and cement production showed negative growth [5] - Coal prices remained stable in September, with a slight increase in thermal coal prices and a decrease in coke prices, indicating a mixed performance across different coal types [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal sector in Q4 2025, with expectations of better performance compared to Q3, driven by limited supply growth and potential demand increases during the winter peak [5][6] Group 2: Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector experienced a decline, with the new materials index down 5.20%, while synthetic biology and semiconductor materials also faced significant drops [6] - The rapid penetration of generative artificial intelligence is highlighted, with user numbers doubling in six months, indicating a growing opportunity in AI-related new materials [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for advanced materials in AI server production, which is expected to see explosive growth in demand due to increasing computational needs [6][7] Group 3: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The launch of the new industrial-grade interactive robot, ZhiYuan G2, marks a significant advancement in the robotics sector, with substantial orders already secured [9] - The report notes the increase in new energy projects, particularly in solar and wind power, with a total of 8,658 new projects registered in August 2025 [9][10] - The National Development and Reform Commission's initiative to regulate price competition in the energy sector is expected to impact market dynamics positively [9] Group 4: Automotive Components - The penetration rate of intelligent driving features in vehicles is rapidly increasing, with expectations for the Chinese market to reach 99.7% by 2030 [11][13] - Domestic chip manufacturers are gaining market share in the automotive sector, with significant advancements in ADAS technology and increasing demand for local solutions [13] - The report highlights the growth potential for companies involved in high-level intelligent driving solutions, with a focus on domestic suppliers [13] Group 5: Instant Delivery Services - The instant delivery industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the increasing demand for high-quality delivery services [16] - SF Express's instant delivery platform is positioned to capitalize on this growth, with a focus on becoming a leading independent third-party service provider [16][17] - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with projected net profits of 3.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [16][17]