软商品日报：巴西供应预期增加，白糖盘整-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia and typhoons in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Cotton growth conditions are suitable, but there is a risk of price decline after the centralized listing of cotton. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,770.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,740.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,550.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 15.24, with a change of - 3.36%. US cotton closed at 64.41, with a change of 0.34% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,376.0, with a change of - 0.37%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,579.0, with a change of - 0.73% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the opening time of sugar mills was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugar - cane producing areas caused sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar - cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat or slightly lower year - on - year, and there was a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Data Quick View - Foreign Market Quotes: US sugar decreased from 15.77 to 15.24, a change of - 3.36%; US cotton increased from 64.19 to 64.41, a change of 0.34% [4] - Spot Prices: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased slightly, and Xinjiang cotton increased from 14,500.0 to 14,550.0, a change of 0.34% [4] - Price Difference Quick View: The price differences of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, etc. changed to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [4] - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [4] - Profit Margin: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4] - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are given, along with the historical volatilities of relevant futures [4] - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8,407.0 to 8,376.0, a change of - 0.37%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2,598.0 to 2,579.0, a change of - 0.73% [4]