中原期货晨会纪要-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market conditions of various commodities including chemical, agricultural products, and industrial metals, along with macro - economic news and investment suggestions for different futures and financial products. It also analyzes the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [3][5][10]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a collective upward trend on October 21, but the rebound needs new catalysts. The market is waiting for policy guidance from important meetings, the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and changes in monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][20][21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Commodities - On October 22, 2025, among chemical commodities, the prices of some commodities like coking coal, coke, (PTA), etc. rose, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and plastic declined. For example, coking coal rose by 1.062% to 1,189.50 yuan, and natural rubber fell by 0.264% to 15,110.00 yuan [3]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has no specific information to provide. The Chinese Commerce Minister had talks on trade issues with EU and Dutch officials, emphasizing China's stance on export control and the importance of global supply - chain stability [5]. - The precious metal market suffered a significant setback, with spot gold dropping by up to 6.3% to about $4080 per ounce and spot silver falling by 8.7% to $47.89 per ounce, mainly due to reduced risk - aversion, a stronger dollar, and profit - taking [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, highlighting China's responsible attitude towards export control. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that the number of domestic tourist trips in the first three quarters reached 4.998 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.61 billion (18%), and tourist spending reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3 Morning Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 21 closed at 7880 yuan/ton, down 0.91%, with a short - term range of 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [10]. - Sugar futures on October 21 closed at 5438 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The price is near the cost - support area, and it is recommended to operate with a shock - thinking approach, focusing on the 5420 - 5450 yuan/ton range [10]. - Corn futures on October 21 closed at 2144 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The price has broken through the previous shock range, and it is advisable to pay attention to the performance at the 2150 - yuan pressure level [10]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg, with increased supply - side reluctance to sell and improved demand. The futures market is expected to maintain a weak shock [10]. - The national egg spot price was stable, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The futures market is expected to remain weak, and a month - spread reverse - arbitrage strategy is recommended [10][12]. - Cotton futures on October 21 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The price has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with a daily output of 18.35 tons. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The futures price will continue to trade at a low level [12]. - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. The futures contract is under pressure [12]. - Coking coal and coke are in a short - term shock, with coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan and coke in the range of 1550 - 1800 yuan [14]. - Log futures on October 21 closed at 838 yuan/m³, up 0.42%. It is recommended to pay attention to the 835 - 845 yuan/m³ range [14]. - Pulp futures on October 21 closed at 5170 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. It is advisable to go long at the 5150 - yuan support level [14]. - Double - offset paper futures on October 21 closed at 4170 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. It is recommended to try long positions near the 4150 - yuan support level [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are at high levels, supported by macro and supply - demand factors. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is weak [14][15]. - The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The steel price is expected to have limited downward space and will trade in a low - level shock [15]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures first rose and then fell. They are expected to continue to trade in a wide - range shock [15]. - Lithium carbonate futures on October 21 closed at 75980 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the 78000 - yuan pressure level [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - On October 21, A - shares rose collectively, and the trading volume slightly increased. The stock index futures showed different trends in basis changes, and option trading volume and implied volatility also changed. It is recommended that trend investors focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide - straddles [17]. - European and American stock markets showed mixed trends. The A - share market rebound needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][18][20].