宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is advisable to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core reason is that the demand benefits are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened. Inventory has increased again, steel mill production has declined, demand has fallen from the high level, and industrial contradictions remain unresolved. There is a downward space, and the positive effects are weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while the shipments from miners have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, domestic mine supply is recovering, and the supply pressure continues to increase. Overall, the iron ore supply is at a high level, while industrial concerns remain, ore demand is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market continue to deteriorate, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. However, due to the high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline. The price is expected to show a volatile decline, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term: weak and volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that demand benefits are weakening, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, with inventory accumulation, weakened steel mill production, and falling demand from the high level. Industrial contradictions remain, and there is a downward space with weakening positive effects. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while miner shipments have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, and domestic mine supply is recovering, increasing supply pressure. - The iron ore supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. But due to high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline, and it is expected to show a volatile decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].