宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20251022

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are all in a state of shock, with the intraday being slightly weaker. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar have not changed much. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the supply continues to contract and has dropped to a relatively low level. However, there are doubts about the continued production reduction during the peak season, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited. The demand for rebar has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream has not improved. The weak demand continues to suppress steel prices. The weak fundamentals have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is shock, medium - term is shock, and intraday is shock - weak. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the weak fundamentals remain unchanged and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar is low but the positive effect is limited, while the demand is weak. The weak fundamentals have not been improved, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and the subsequent trend is to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2].