宝城期货国债期货早报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].