宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年10月22日）-20251022

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated October 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of commodities in the agricultural futures sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Palm oil production is increasing while demand is weakening, and the substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil is rising. Overall, the short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures are all expected to be weakly volatile [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [5][6] - Core Logic: The domestic soybean meal market has an ample supply of soybeans, high port inventories, and some oil mills face the risk of inventory overstocking. Downstream breeding losses have deteriorated, leading to cautious purchasing by feed enterprises and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7][6] - Core Logic: Palm oil production has increased while demand has decreased. The substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil has risen, and domestic palm oil inventories have increased. The market still depends on the biodiesel policy expectations and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] Other Contracts - Soybean Meal 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - Soybean Oil 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - Palm 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]