国泰君安期货所长早读-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered the withdrawal of safe - haven buying, leading to a sharp decline in precious metals. Gold and silver are expected to continue to adjust, with gold needing monthly - level adjustment and silver having further downward space [8][9]. - Various commodities show different trends. For example, copper prices are pressured by the rising US dollar; zinc is supported by the external market; lead prices are supported by the decrease in domestic inventory, etc. [12][20][23] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The previous rise was due to continuous risk events. However, with the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine crisis, the risk of profit - taking and the weakening of tariff - related safe - haven sentiment have led to a decline. A long - term bullish view still exists, and one can consider re - entering the long position after a significant correction [8][9]. - Silver: The recent price has been volatile, with a decline in the overseas spot squeeze risk. In the short term, there is still downward space, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to rise [9]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The rising US dollar has pressured copper prices. Import and production data in China and other countries show a complex supply - demand situation, and the trend intensity is neutral [20][22]. - Zinc: The external market supports zinc prices. The inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has soared. The trend intensity is neutral [23][24]. - Lead: The decrease in domestic inventory supports lead prices. The trend intensity is neutral [26]. - Tin: The price is affected by macro factors. The trend intensity is neutral [28][31]. - Aluminum: It shows a range - bound trend, and alumina shows a slight rebound. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is neutral [32][34]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel shows a short - term narrow - range shock, and stainless steel has difficulty finding an upward driving force in supply and demand. The cost limits the downward space. The trend intensity of both is neutral [35][37]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - LPG: The disk valuation is being repaired, but macro risks still exist. - Propylene: It shows a short - term low - level shock. - PVC: The trend is weak. - Fuel Oil: It shows a narrow - range shock, and the short - term weakness remains. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high and low sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable. 3.4 Building Materials and Metals - Iron Ore: It shows a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is neutral [45][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The market is in a wait - and - see state, with a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [50][54]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: The cost provides bottom support, and they show a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [56][58]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The expectations are fluctuating, and they show a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [59][62]. 3.5 Others - Carbonate Lithium: The warehouse receipt is being de - stocked, and the short - term price is relatively firm. The trend intensity is 1 (slightly bullish) [38][40]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipt continues to be de - stocked. The trend intensity is 1 (slightly bullish) [42][44]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot transaction price. The trend intensity is neutral [42][44]. - Log: It shows an oscillating and repeated trend [63].