国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides market trend forecasts and fundamental data for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities will experience wide - range fluctuations, with market sentiment being cautious, and some are supported by cost at the bottom, while the log market will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend Forecast: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 769.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.33%. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spread showed minor changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar - Trend Forecast: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [9] - Fundamental Data: The previous day's RB2601 futures closing price was 3,047 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.36%. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products also changed [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [13] Hot - Rolled Coil - Trend Forecast: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [10] - Fundamental Data: The previous day's HC2601 futures closing price was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.31%. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to rebar, including changes in crude steel output, weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend Forecast: Wide - range fluctuations supported by cost at the bottom [15] - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and there were also changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [15]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price changes in different regions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, a steel mill's ferrosilicon procurement price decreased, and the production and sales of manganese ore by South32 changed [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend Forecast: Wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [18][19] - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased, and spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spread changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [21] Logs - Trend Forecast: Fluctuate repeatedly [22] - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, and spreads of different log contracts changed, and most spot prices remained stable [23]. - Macro and Industry News: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [26]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [25]