沪铜日评：中美关税谈判的不确定性或使铜价承压-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. The Fed's future expectations of interest rate cuts and halting balance sheet reduction, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, suggest a bullish stance. It is recommended to wait for price dips to establish long positions, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for different copper markets [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract: On October 21, 2025, the closing price was 85,400, up 20 from the previous day; trading volume was 104,758 hands, down 53,903; open interest was 231,226 hands, up 4,316; inventory was 37,678 tons, down 3,641; the basis was 330, up 80 [2]. - London Copper: On October 21, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,596.5, down 116 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.22, down 6.87; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 96.56, down 2.55; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0593, up 0.091 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On October 21, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.9525, down 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 345,924, up 343 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper is difficult to procure, the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are initially rising, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - Demand Side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - Inventory Side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for price dips to establish long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].