对二甲苯：下方空间有限，PTA：下方空间有限，MEG：需求预期好转，短期有反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PX has limited downside space, and it is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. The supply and demand of PX are slightly tight [1][8][9]. - PTA has limited downside space, with demand expected to improve marginally. It is a volatile market, and short positions should be reduced [1][9]. - MEG has a better demand expectation and may rebound in the short - term. Short positions should be reduced [1][10]. Summary by Related Content Market Data - Futures Data: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 6332, 4414, 4004, 6070, and 437.7 respectively, with daily changes of 64, 30, 1, 42, and 1.9, and daily change rates of 1.02%, 0.68%, 0.02%, 0.70%, and 0.44% respectively. The month - spreads of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spot Data: The previous trading day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $784.33/ton, 4325 yuan/ton, 4090 yuan/ton, $540/ton, and $61.09/barrel respectively, with corresponding price changes [2]. - Spot Processing Fee: The previous trading day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were $246.17/ton, 144.83 yuan/ton, 380.77 yuan/ton, 154.12 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with corresponding changes [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price was stagnant at the end of the session. PX price was also stagnant, with no transactions in the negotiations. The PX price was estimated at $784/ton CFR, up $1 from last Friday. Some market participants believe that the price increase is driven by sentiment or a natural rebound. The operating rate of Chinese PX factories decreased from about 87.5% to about 85% in the week ending October 17. Market participants suggest reducing PX production due to low PTA activity [2][3][5]. - Toluene and Mixed Xylene: In the week ending October 17, the prices of toluene and mixed xylene increased slightly. Refinery shutdowns and supply limitations continued to support the market. The overall tightness is expected to last until the end of October [5]. - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with a weak spot basis [7]. - MEG: From October 20 to October 26, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Shanghai ports were about 17,000 tons, 36,000 tons, and 0 tons respectively, and the planned arrival quantity at some main ports was about 53,000 tons [7]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an estimated average sales rate of 160 - 170% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [8]. Trends and Suggestions - PX: It is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. Pay attention to the impact of Yulong Petrochemical's possible reduction in CDU load on aromatic hydrocarbon production. PX supply and demand are slightly tight, and oil prices have recovered recently [8][9]. - PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, and it is a volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning of Xin凤鸣's new PTA device and the progress of India's new PTA device GAIL. The profit of the polyester sector has recovered, and overall consumption in the industry chain is expected to improve [9]. - MEG: Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning and maintenance of relevant devices and the possible planned - out maintenance of coal - based devices due to coal price changes [10].