宝城期货甲醇早报：品种晨会纪要-20251022

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is weak, and the intraday view is strongly oscillating. It is expected to run strongly, and there is a divergence between long and short positions, with methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, external import pressure continues to increase, and the annual import peak has arrived. As a result, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China before the festival remains high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of olefin futures is poor, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved. Facing the medium - term downward trend suppression, on Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Methanol 2601 Situation - The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is weak, the intraday view is strongly oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly, with a divergence between long and short positions and methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. Price and Market Logic - The calculation of price increase and decrease is based on the closing price of the night session (for varieties with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for varieties without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the same - day daytime session as the ending price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong or weak oscillation only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain high, external import pressure increases, and the annual import peak has arrived, leading to high methanol inventory in East and South China ports before the festival. Although downstream demand is improving, olefin futures profit is poor, and the weak demand situation needs to be improved. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]