宁证期货今日早评-20251022

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term support exists due to the possible end of the US government's "shutdown crisis". Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [1] - The risk of tariff and geopolitical disturbances weakens, so does the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals are in a volatile correction, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak due to the expected decline in polyester load during the traditional off - season, and the cost - end is also under pressure. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3] - Overseas weather improvement weakens the cost support for rubber, and consumption data is poor. However, the short - term strategy is to go long at a low level. Follow - up negotiation progress should be monitored [4] - Iron ore has an expected increase in supply and weak terminal demand, with a risk of fundamental weakening. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operation is recommended [5] - For silicon iron, short - term factors support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price [6] - Steel prices may oscillate with limited up - and - down space due to the weak demand and the expected increase in production cuts [6][7] - The short - term futures price of live pigs stops falling and rebounds, maintaining a bottom - oscillating rebound pattern [7] - The fundamental guidance for palm oil is unclear, and the domestic price is under pressure. Short - term low - buying and high - selling is recommended [8] - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the substitution of soybean meal [8] - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9] - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10] - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] - The short - term bond is bearish due to the slightly tightened capital. Treasury futures have more bullish factors but may still oscillate in the medium term [11] - Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the economic data disturbances after the US government's normal operation and grasp the long - buying opportunities [11] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, 2025. The four - week average export volume reached 3.82 million barrels per day, the highest since May 2023 [1] Gold - European leaders support negotiating for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the risk - aversion sentiment [1] PTA - This week's domestic PTA output was 1.3983 million tons, with a decrease compared to last week and the same period last year. The average cost, profit, and processing fee all decreased [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are under pressure, and China's rubber tire export volume increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The inventory in Qingdao Port is slightly decreasing [4] Iron Ore - From October 13 - 19, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of silicon iron decreased slightly. The cost has strong support, demand has toughness, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained flat, while other indicators such as capacity utilization and profitability decreased slightly. Steel demand is weak, but production cuts may relieve the supply - demand contradiction [6][7] Live Pigs - On October 21, the average pork price decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. The price of live pigs has rebounded slightly recently [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. The domestic inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals [8] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 42nd week, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in East and South China decreased. The substitution of soybean meal suppresses the consumption of rapeseed meal [8] Methanol - The signing volume of northwest methanol producers decreased, the price in Jiangsu decreased, and the capacity utilization rate and inventory showed different trends. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is stable and weak, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate [9][10] Plastic - The price of LLDPE in North China decreased, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most Shibor short - term varieties increased, indicating a slightly tightened capital, which is bearish for short - term bonds [11] Silver - Trump's planned visit to China weakens the risk - aversion sentiment. Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited due to the expected October interest rate cut [11]