国新国证期货早报-20251022

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On October 21, A-share market strengthened, with Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to 3916.33, Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.06% to 13077.32, and ChiNext Index rising 3.02% to 3083.72. The trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1873.9 billion yuan, an increase of 136.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on October 21, closing at 4607.87, a rise of 69.65 [2]. Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On October 21, the weighted coke index weakened, closing at 1697.9, a decrease of 45.9 [3]. - The weighted coking coal index was weak on October 21, closing at 1191.4 yuan, a decrease of 42.3 [4]. - Coke price increase took effect on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. Current iron - water output is 2409500 tons, a decrease of 590 tons. Coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 13 yuan/ton [5]. - Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank keeps LPR unchanged. Mine - end开工率 has rebounded, and there is no inventory pressure at the mine end. The开工率 of coal - washing plants has rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally [5]. Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of October, ICE sugar rebounded on Monday. Driven by short - covering, Zhengzhou sugar contract 2601 rose slightly on Tuesday but fell at night due to short - selling. In September 2025, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premix totaled 151400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135200 tons. Brazil exported 34620.93 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of October, with an average daily export of 179586.23 tons, a 6% increase compared to the average daily export in October last year [5]. Group 4: Rubber - Due to the temporary easing of trade tensions and rainfall in Thai production areas, spot prices in Southeast Asian rubber production areas increased. Driven by funds, Shanghai rubber rose on Tuesday and slightly closed higher after night trading. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Thailand may face floods from October 21 - 26. The weather improvement in major rubber - producing countries may keep rubber production stable in Q4 [6]. Group 5: Soybean Meal - On October 21, CBOT soybean futures weakened. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA stopped updating key data. The market estimates that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate was 73%. As of October 16, Brazil's soybean planting rate reached 24%, higher than 18% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [7][8]. - On October 21, domestic soybean meal futures weakened. The main contract M2601 closed at 2861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. Domestic soybean imports are abundant, oil - mill开工率 is high, downstream replenishment is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. Concerns about the long - term supply gap are decreasing. Short - term soybean meal lacks upward momentum and will fluctuate [9]. Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 21, live - pig futures prices rose slightly. The main contract LH2601 closed at 12235 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.66%. The increasing spread between standard and fat pigs attracted second - round fattening, but the supply pressure is high, and terminal consumption is weak. The short - term market is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the rebound space is limited [10]. Group 7: Palm Oil - On October 21, palm oil futures prices fluctuated in a narrow range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small negative candlestick. From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.5% month - on - month [11]. Group 8: Shanghai Copper - Affected by global macro - risks, copper prices may be under pressure, but supply shortages provide support. Technically, Shanghai copper may test the 86000 yuan/ton mark. The downstream purchasing sentiment is poor, and the spot market trades around par. Attention should be paid to macro news, overseas mine production, and downstream replenishment [11]. Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13540 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 19 lots. The price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. The temperature in Xinjiang is rising, which is beneficial for cotton picking [12]. Group 10: Iron Ore - On October 21, the main iron ore contract 2601 rose slightly, closing at 769.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments rebounded, and domestic arrivals decreased. Iron - water output is high but may decline. Short - term iron ore prices will fluctuate [12]. Group 11: Asphalt - On October 21, the main asphalt contract 2601 rose slightly, closing at 3157 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased slightly, and shipments rebounded. However, cold air affects construction, and demand is weakening. Short - term prices will fluctuate [12][13]. Group 12: Logs - On October 21, the 2511 log contract opened at 808, closed at 803.5, and decreased by 276 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The supply - demand relationship is balanced, and the market is gradually reducing inventory. Attention should be paid to spot prices, imports, inventory, and macro - sentiment [13]. Group 13: Steel - On October 21, rb2601 closed at 3047 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3219 yuan/ton. Domestic steel demand is weak, and some mills and traders are reducing inventory by cutting prices. As losses increase, mills may increase production cuts. Iron ore prices are under pressure, while coking coal supply is tight. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate [13]. Group 14: Alumina - On October 21, ao2601 closed at 2810 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments and arrivals increased, reducing the cost support for alumina. Consumption demand is stable, and there are sporadic production cuts at the smelting end. The futures price is close to the average cash - cost line, and the downward space is limited. The spot market is slightly warmer [14]. Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On October 21, al2512 closed at 20965 yuan/ton. Macro uncertainties are high, and Sino - US trade representatives will talk. The supply is stable, and social inventory varies. Demand is weakening, but some large - scale traders' purchases support the price. The basis is stable, and the spot is at a discount [14].