宝城期货煤焦早报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) 2601 contracts, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "decline", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - The core logic for Jiao Coal is that although its fundamental support is insufficient, recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors drive the futures main contract to oscillate within a range [5]. - The core logic for Coke is that with both supply and demand decreasing recently (more obvious on the supply side) and overall inventory in the industry chain decreasing, and no obvious policy benefits, the main contract maintains range - bound oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference | Variety | Contract | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jiao Coal | 2601 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Decline | Oscillation approach | Multi - empty stalemate, Jiao Coal oscillates | | Coke | 2601 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Decline | Oscillation approach | Insufficient upward drive, Coke continues to oscillate | [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Reference view: Oscillation approach. - Core logic: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1300.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.17%. Fundamental support is insufficient, but recent factors drive the futures main contract to oscillate within a range [5]. - Coke (J) - Intraday view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Reference view: Oscillation approach. - Core logic: The latest quotation of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index is 1520 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%. Supply and demand both decline, supply reduction is obvious, inventory decreases, and the policy is neutral, driving the main contract to oscillate within a range [6].