沥青：随油震荡

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Asphalt: Fluctuating with Oil" and dated October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Wang Hanxi, with investment consulting qualification number Z0019174 and email wanghanxi@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures - BU2511 closed at 3,266 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 3,268 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.06% increase. Its trading volume was 40,849 lots (a decrease of 4,645 lots), and the open interest was 35,326 lots (a decrease of 9,329 lots) [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,190 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.73% increase, and 3,198 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.25% increase. Its trading volume was 40,280 lots (an increase of 9,532 lots), and the open interest was 78,188 lots (a decrease of 3,173 lots) [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 13,040 lots with no change [2] Spreads - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 74 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 76 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (up 30 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day) [2] Spot Market - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,347 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,466 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,419 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,458 yuan/ton [2] Operating and Inventory Rates - As of October 20, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 36.58%, up 0.42% from October 16; the refinery inventory rate was 29.81%, up 0.47% from October 16 [2] Group 4: Trend Strength - The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9] Group 5: Market Information - According to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (an 18.2% increase in the decrease), and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a 6.5% decrease) [12] - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factory warehouses was 760,000 tons, a 1.3% decrease from October 16. The factory warehouses in different regions showed mixed changes, with obvious destocking in the Southwest and South China regions [12] - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a 2.0% decrease from October 16. Most social warehouses in major regions decreased, with obvious destocking in Shandong and the Northwest regions [12]