格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials industry is "volatile" [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is in a policy vacuum period. Macroscopically, Sino - US risk fluctuations change, and the Fourth Plenary Session still supports the market. The terminal market is still poor, with the proportion of steel used in real estate decreasing. Infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates have declined, and steel exports face uncertainties. Supply is expected to decrease, and short - term steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Steel futures (screw and coil) closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [1] Important Information - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that there was no information to provide for now [1] - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, emphasizing that China's export control is a responsible act to maintain world peace and supply chain stability [1] - In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a 1.0% year - on - year decrease, and 58.43 million tons of pig iron, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Logic - The terminal market is weak, with real estate continuously dragging down steel consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates have dropped to 1.1% and 5%, respectively. Steel exports are at a relatively high level but face uncertainties [1] - From January to September, China's crude steel production continued to decline year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are falling, and production cuts are increasing. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline [1] - The daily pig iron output is currently over 2.4 million tons and is expected to drop below 2.3 million tons. The annual crude steel and pig iron production are expected to decline year - on - year [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the 3000 level of rebar has strong support. It is recommended to try to go long when approaching 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below [1]