铅锌日评20251022：沪铅区间整理，沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251022

Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market shows both supply and demand growth. The resumption of a large recycled lead smelter in North China has increased refined lead production, but raw material supply is tight. The short - term lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and continuous attention should be paid to the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and macro - sentiment changes [1]. - For zinc, the market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, demand has not significantly improved. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventories, the LME 0 - 3 back structure has deepened, and overseas structural risks should be vigilant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,000.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the basis was - 160.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,993.00 dollars/ton, down 0.05%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.61, up 0.64% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 43,537.00 hands, up 57.42%; open interest was 33,556.00 hands, down 12.15%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.30, up 79.19% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 28,133.00 tons, down 3.87% [1]. Industry Information - A large recycled lead smelter in North China has resumed production, with daily refined lead output exceeding 500 tons, but raw material supply is tight [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 152,131 hands, down 3,442 hands [1]. - Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, up 8% year - on - year [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,870.00 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 21,970.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53%; the basis was - 100.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,993.50 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.34, down 0.06% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 108,521.00 hands, up 25.60%; open interest was 130,442.00 hands, up 98.81%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, down 36.83% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,275.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 66,268.00 tons, down 0.23% [1]. Industry Information - Silvercorp's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 5.6 million pounds, down 3% year - on - year [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 211,259 hands, down 13,012 hands [1]. Investment Strategy - For both lead and zinc, the trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1].