国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The easing of the Russia-Ukraine crisis affects the market [2][4]. - Silver: The contradiction in the spot market eases, leading to a rise and then a fall [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc: Supported by the external market [2][12]. - Lead: The decrease in domestic inventory supports the price [2][15]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][17]. - Aluminum: Ranges in a fluctuating manner; Alumina: Shows a slight rebound; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Narrow - range short - term fluctuations with accumulating contradictions; Stainless steel: Difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, while cost limits the downside space [2][23]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Fundamental Data: For example, the closing price of沪金2512 yesterday was 994.06 with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 945.44 with a night - session decrease of 4.64% [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [7]. Silver - Fundamental Data: The closing price of沪银2512 yesterday was 11805 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 11285.00 with a night - session decrease of 4.86% [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [7]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 85,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 85020 with a night - session decrease of 0.44% [9]. - Industry News: China's copper import and production data in September and other related industry news, such as China's 9 - month cumulative import of copper concentrates increasing by 7.7% year - on - year [11]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21970 with a 0.55% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2976 with a 1.24% increase [12]. - News: The "cornering" situation in the London zinc market, with the available inventory being less than one - day's demand and the spot premium reaching the highest level since 1997 [13]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17160 with a 0.59% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1994 with a 1.17% increase [15]. - News: Related news about the Russia - Ukraine process and the Anshi Semiconductor issue [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 280,870 with a 0.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 281,070 with a 0.16% increase [17]. - Macro and Industry News: A series of macro - economic news such as China's housing price data and LPR quotes [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20965, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2810 [21]. - Comprehensive News: News about the Anshi Semiconductor issue and the situation of margin debt in the US stock market [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for all, indicating neutral views [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,665 [23]. - Macro and Industry News: News about the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia and China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for Russian - imported copper and nickel [23][24]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating neutral views [25].