农产品日报：郑棉震荡反弹，原糖再创新低-20251022

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices may weaken due to new cotton listing,增产 expectations, and weak demand, but long - term prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2][3] - For sugar, short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish due to global surplus expectations [3][5] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and short - term prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations, with attention on the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [7][8] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.56%) [1] - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In September 2025, China imported 9.5 tons of cotton, a 31.16% increase from the previous month and an 18.67% decrease from the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2025, imports were 68.5 tons, a 69.82% decrease from the same period last year [2] Market Analysis - International: Due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, and the new - year global cotton market is expected to be loose. The short - term external market is under pressure [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and the new - year market starts with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may weaken, but long - term prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [3] Group 4: Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5770 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Export: Brazil exported 233.46 tons of sugar and molasses in the third week of October, a 2.68% decrease from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures rose during the day and fell at night following the external market. Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price [4][5] - In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but the increase in production in the new season may be less than expected [5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish [3][5] Group 5: Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual impact on supply is limited, and domestic port inventory remains high [7] - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, the US, and China is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale restocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [8]