航运日报：马士基11月第一周报价出炉，近期关注是否有船司11月下半月涨价函发出-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The counter - measure taken by China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European routes [4]. - The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations, and the 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5]. - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7]. - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase letters. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1410/2350, and HPL has price increase letters for November [1]. - Geopolitical Situation: On October 21, local time, Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence officials met with Hamas representatives in Doha to discuss the Gaza situation and the implementation of the cease - fire agreement, but more details were not disclosed [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October is 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - October Contract: The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations. The final SCFIS index on the 27th is estimated to be higher than 1140.38 points, and the delivery settlement price of the 10 - month contract may be higher than 1110 points. The market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - December Contract: The trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate high. The trading process will involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [6]. - February 2026 Contract: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. If the shipping companies' price - holding period is extended, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract price [7]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [9]. 3.5 Ship Delivery - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU [8].