农产品日报：苹果客商交易分层，红枣产区进展分化-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [9] Core Views - Apple: The current late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with an obvious polarization trend. The price trend of late Fuji apples, the acquisition mentality of merchants, the selling mentality of fruit farmers, weather conditions, and terminal consumption progress should be focused on [3][4]. - Red dates: If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a shock pattern with limited upward space and strong downward support. The acquisition progress and price changes of new - season red dates in the main producing areas should be concerned [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1,350, a change of + 15 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 550, a change of + 15 from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday. The supply of late Fuji apples in major producing areas increased, and the market polarization continued. The price of high - quality apples in western producing areas such as Gansu Jingning and Shaanxi Luochuan was stable and firm, and the ordering was in the middle and late stages. In Shandong producing areas, due to the average redness and brightness of the fruits, merchants were cautious in their acquisitions, and the opening prices were determined by quality. The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of general - quality apples may decline due to the increase in supply [2][3]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Currently, late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with an obvious polarization trend [4]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1,780, a change of + 5 from the previous day [5]. Market Analysis - The red dates futures price showed a volatile trend yesterday. The orchard - ordering process in the main producing areas of Xinjiang was fast. Apples in Hetian and Qiemo were being harvested, and those in Alar were sporadically harvested. The mainstream price was 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg. The supply of goods in the Hebei sales area increased slightly, and merchants purchased on demand. The overall inventory pressure still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - overdraft, and a reduction in production is a normal expectation. It is estimated that the new - season yield is between 560,000 and 620,000 tons [7][8]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a shock pattern with limited upward space and strong downward support. The acquisition progress and price changes of new - season red dates in the main producing areas should be concerned [9].