Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the same for BR [7] Core Viewpoints - The price of raw materials remains strong, providing cost support for rubber. In the short term, the domestic supply pressure is not obvious, and the overall demand has rigid support. The valuations of RU and NR are low, with potential for a low - level rebound. The supply of BR may decrease in the future, and its price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [1][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,150 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was at 12,365 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,040 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - Truck Sales: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - Natural Rubber Imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - Automobile Production and Sales: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. It was the first time in the same period in history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate had remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - Rubber Tire Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 534.91 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 750 yuan/ton (- 140), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 300 yuan/ton (+ 40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,103 yuan/ton (- 3,102.99), the NR basis was 828.00 yuan/ton (+ 27.00); the whole latex was 14,400 yuan/ton (+ 200), the mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 300), the 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 750 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,450 yuan/ton (+ 200) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.93 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.56), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25) [4] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 140 yuan/ton (- 200), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,907 yuan/ton (+ 52) [6] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [6] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [6] Strategy - RU and NR: The spot market is firm due to the slowdown in domestic arrivals. The basis continues to strengthen. Currently, rainfall in domestic producing areas has decreased significantly, and raw material prices are falling. However, there is still a lot of rain in northern Thailand, and the price of cup lump remains strong, supporting the rubber price. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show certain resilience, with overall demand having rigid support. Before the domestic arrivals increase, the domestic supply pressure is not obvious. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and there may be a demand for a low - level rebound [7] - BR: In late October, the maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants will increase, and the supply may decrease, which may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show certain resilience, with overall demand having rigid support. Supply and demand may improve to some extent. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price also provides bottom support for the butadiene rubber price. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be more likely to rise than fall this week. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the rebound space [7]
化工日报：原料价格坚挺，橡胶成本支撑仍存-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-22 02:24