高市早苗坎坷胜选日本首相

Political Context - On October 21, 2025, Sanna Takichi was elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister with support from the Japan Innovation Party, despite challenges from the Komeito party's exit from the ruling coalition[2][3] - The new government is expected to maintain a loose fiscal policy, but may need to compromise on specific policies due to political capital depletion during cabinet formation[5] Economic Policy - The new ruling coalition has shifted towards more expansionary fiscal policies compared to the previous Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition, focusing on inflation mitigation measures such as abolishing temporary gasoline taxes and exempting food consumption taxes for two years[4][9] - The coalition's economic strategy includes increased public investment in semiconductor, AI, energy security, and defense, aiming to support domestic demand and improve income expectations for businesses and residents[5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to avoid raising interest rates in the early days of the new government, with expectations of maintaining a loose monetary policy stance[5][6] - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exceeded the 2% target for 37 consecutive months, indicating a need for reevaluation of the yen's real exchange rate[6] Market Implications - Short-term market reactions may revert to "Takichi trading," characterized by rising Japanese stocks, increasing bond yields, and yen depreciation[6] - Long-term, the real exchange rate of the yen requires reassessment, potentially through gradual appreciation or inflation-driven asset price increases[6]