商品期货早班车-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, but there are contradictions in the outlook. The price decline of precious metals is mainly due to the short - term profit - taking of funds after a rapid rise, and the impact of the expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is limited. For gold, it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and wait for support below; for silver, reduce long positions [2]. - For basic metals, the short - term view on copper is to treat it with a volatile mindset; electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is expected to be volatile and weak; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the 8000 - 9000 range, and it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, the 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000, and for the 12 - contract and later, consider lightly testing long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [3][4]. - For the black industry, for both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to wait and see; for coking coal, due to high - valued futures and expected production contraction, it is also recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - In the agricultural products market, corn futures are expected to be volatile and weak; cotton is recommended to buy on dips in the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range; eggs and live pigs are expected to have a weak trend and short - term volatile consolidation respectively [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so it is recommended to short at high prices; PVC is recommended to be short - allocated; PTA is recommended to be long - allocated for PX and short - sell processing fees for PTA; rubber is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, and it is recommended to wait and see; glass and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; MEG is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term; for crude oil, it is recommended to hold short positions in SC [9][10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold priced in London gold tumbled on Tuesday, with the price once falling below $4100 [2]. - Fundamentals: The US Congress failed to pass the temporary spending bill, and the government is expected to remain shut down until next Monday. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks. Takako Koshikawa was elected as Japan's new prime minister. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various places, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. 3.2 Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The market expected the easing of Sino - US relations and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on metals. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the demand was divided between traditional and AI - related industries [3]. - Trading Strategy: Treat it with a volatile mindset in the short - term [3]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,965 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see as the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.14% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2810 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production cuts, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and pay attention to the subsequent production cuts of alumina plants [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 - contract opened lower on Tuesday and oscillated narrowly throughout the day, closing at 8505 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of furnaces opened this week increased, and it is expected that production will be reduced in the southwest region at the end of October. Social inventories increased in accumulation speed, and the demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see as it is expected to oscillate in the 8000 - 9000 range [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 - contract opened lower on Tuesday, then rose and oscillated narrowly throughout the day, closing at 50,715 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the industry and warehouse - receipt inventories increased this week. The downstream product prices fluctuated little, and the photovoltaic installation growth in the fourth quarter is under pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: For the 11 - contract, there is a price bottom support at 48,000. For the 12 - contract and later, consider lightly testing long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main 2601 - contract of rebar closed at 3051 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased by 1.4% to 5.03 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 2.56 million tons. The steel supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is significant structural differentiation [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 3010 - 3080 [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2601 - contract of iron ore closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 940,000 tons to 28.25 million tons. The port inventory increased by 1.03 million tons. The iron - water output decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 - contract of coking coal closed at 1189.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water output decreased, the steel mill profit stabilized marginally, and the overall inventory level decreased significantly. The futures are at a premium, and there is an expectation of production contraction [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1155 - 1215 [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Market Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose [7]. - Fundamentals: Rainy weather in North China affected corn quality, but the selling pressure has eased. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased, suppressing the long - term price [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices also rebounded. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to rebound [7]. - Fundamentals: There were changes in cotton imports in South Korea and Indonesia. The Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index increased. There were changes in China's cotton cloth imports [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips in the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: Egg prices fell to a low level, increasing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but the supply was sufficient, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: Live pig futures and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of live pigs will continue to increase from October to November. The slaughter volume has rebounded, and the price is expected to bottom out weakly [8]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to consolidate in the short - term [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: New devices were put into operation, and some domestic devices reduced production. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand in the agricultural film season improved [9]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [9]. PVC - Market Performance: The V01 contract closed at 4699, down 0.4% [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC price decreased by about 20, and the trading was average. Supply increased, and exports increased significantly, but India may impose anti - dumping duties in November. The social inventory was at a high level [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - allocate [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The CFR China price of PX was $784/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4320 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 88 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA increased. The polyester factory load increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - high level. PX was in a balanced and slightly loose supply - demand situation, and PTA had a slight inventory reduction [9]. - Trading Strategy: Long - allocate PX and short - sell PTA processing fees [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the RU2601 contract rose rapidly during the session, closing at 15,150 yuan/ton, up 1.92% [9]. - Fundamentals: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable with a slight increase. The inventory in Qingdao decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see as it is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1086, down 1.8% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price continued to decline. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]. PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and the market trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - Fundamentals: New devices were put into operation, and some domestic devices reduced production. The demand in the peak season improved, but part of the Q4 demand was overdrawn [10]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [10]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4075 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of 74 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply of MEG increased, and the inventory in East China ports was at a low level. The polyester factory load increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - high level. MEG had inventory accumulation [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices were weak due to multiple negative factors, but the decline narrowed as WTI fell below the high - cost line of shale oil [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally. There were uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [10]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in SC [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract rebounded slightly. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene was at a normal or normal - high level. The downstream demand improved in the peak season but was overdrawn [11]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile and weak in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1210, down 1.4% [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased slightly. The downstream demand was weak [11]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [11].