华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251022

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term coal and coke supply increases while demand decreases, both are at relatively high levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - Price Movement: Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, and the night - session prices rebounded slightly with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises have not yet increased prices and are still in the game process [3]. - Import Data: China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. In September, imports of Mongolian coal were 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, imports of Mongolian coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices [2][3]. - High - frequency Data: Since the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance after the National Day, the daily average coal clearance volume at Ganqimaodu is 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared to September. The impact of changes in Mongolian coal imports needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - Later Focus: Concerns include changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [4].