铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit a snag, and European countries advocate an "immediate ceasefire" at the current front line. The US government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, and the market is digesting the situation. Domestically, A-shares have risen, but the trading volume is still low. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, it is cost-effective to buy on dips. The bond market has also recovered [2]. - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino-US economic and trade relations are showing signs of easing. The precious metal prices are entering an adjustment phase, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. - The copper price has slightly declined due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of market risk aversion. The supply of copper is increasing, while the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the supply - demand situation is favorable. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are complicated. The US government shutdown has affected economic data. The market is waiting for the CPI data on the 24th and the APEC Sino - US summit at the end of the month. Domestically, A - shares have risen, the bond market has recovered, and the short - term stock market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing. The precious metal prices have fallen sharply, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price has slightly declined. The market risk aversion has weakened, and the supply is increasing. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, the supply - demand situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. 3.8 Tin - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. 3.13 Steel - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26].