LPG产业风险管理日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and cost - end fluctuations. Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. The CP contract price in October dropped unexpectedly, and the external market remains weak. There are concerns about supply due to issues related to the US and Iran. The domestic fundamentals have little change, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the LPG market. The expansion of PDH profits supports demand to some extent, and the widening of the FN spread may attract some cracking demand. However, there are also negative factors affecting the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3800 - 4400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 34.05% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits. They can also sell PG2511C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. Procurement Management - For companies with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell PG2511P3800 put options with a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [1]. Industry Data - Various price data for LPG and related products are provided, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, on October 21, 2025, Brent was at 61.36, with a daily increase of 0.56 and a weekly decrease of 0.92 [3]. - Different spread data such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., are presented, showing their daily and weekly changes. For instance, the LPG - FEI spread was 180.88 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 2.63 and a weekly increase of 47.14 [6]. - Month - spread data for LPG and related products are given, like LPG11 - 12 and LPG12 - 1. The LPG11 - 12 month - spread was 146 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - Ratio data such as MB/WTI and FEI/Brent are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes. The MB/WTI ratio was 0.46 on October 21, 2025, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.01 [6]. - Both盘面 and spot profit data are presented, including PDH盘面 profits based on different benchmarks (PG, FEI, CP) and Asian naphtha and propane cracking profits. For example, the PDH盘面 profit - FEI was 366.36 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.73 and a weekly increase of 88.12 [6]. - Freight data for different routes (Middle East to Far East, US to Europe, etc.) are provided, showing their daily and weekly changes. The Middle East to Far East freight was 59.333 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 3.167 [6]. Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various factors are presented, including price, spread, month - spread, ratio, profit, and freight. For example, there are seasonal charts for FEI, CP, MB prices, LPG futures prices, and different spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, etc. [7][9][10]