高硫进料支撑，低硫供应压力持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are both in a weak oscillation state, and the idea is to short on rebounds. Do not short high - sulfur cracking in the short term as it is supported by feedstock demand. Take profit on the FU1 - 5 backwardation spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Supply and Demand Analysis - High - sulfur: Russian fuel oil exports increase despite energy facility attacks. Middle - East high - sulfur exports rise after the decline in power - generation demand, while Mexican high - sulfur exports are at a low level. The summer power - generation demand has completely subsided, but there is support for high - sulfur feedstock demand in the fourth quarter due to the approaching exhaustion of domestic refineries' crude oil quotas [4]. - Low - sulfur: There are medium - term disturbances in supply factors, but the near - end spot market remains weak with continuous decline in spot premiums. Nigerian RFCC device operation is unstable. There is an expected increase in the logistics of low - sulfur heavy - grade raw materials to the Pan - Singapore region. The Al - Zour refinery is expected to undergo maintenance in the first quarter of next year. In the Chinese market, Sinopec and PetroChina are expected to have sufficient quotas in the fourth quarter without increasing production, while CNOOC is expected to face quota shortages. Ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rebounds for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. - Arbitrage: Do not short high - sulfur cracking in the short term. Take profit on the FU1 - 5 backwardation spread. - Options: Wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - Russia: Despite continuous attacks on energy facilities, fuel oil exports increase. As of October 12, the four - week average of Russian port crude oil exports reached 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. In September, fuel oil exports reached a record high of 3.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 million tons (+28%). In contrast, refined - oil exports decreased. Some refineries have been attacked, affecting their processing capacity [9][10]. - Mexico: The Tula coking unit has been put into operation, increasing crude oil processing volume. The Olmeca refinery has been frequently adjusted and maintained in recent months, with expected increases in refined - oil output and a gradual reduction in high - sulfur output. In September, high - sulfur exports further declined to a record low of 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (-36%) [15]. - Middle East: The US sanctions on Iran continue. As of October 17, exports were about 2.25 million tons, with a daily average of about 140,000 tons, similar to the September level. After the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East subsided, high - sulfur exports began to rise in July, reaching a peak of 5.26 million tons in August [20]. - Demand - Side Analysis - High - sulfur: Ship - fuel demand is stably supported, with the marginal increase coming from the stable growth in the number of desulfurization - tower - equipped ships. Power - generation demand has completely subsided, with a significant decline in imports in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In the fourth quarter, there is support for high - sulfur feedstock demand due to the approaching exhaustion of domestic refineries' crude oil quotas [24][27][32]. - Low - sulfur: There are disturbances in supply factors, and the near - end spot market is weak. Ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Price and Spread Data - Fuel oil spot prices, including Brent crude oil, HSFO380, LSFO, etc., are presented, along with various spreads such as HSFO380 - Brent, LSFO - GO, etc. [54][55][57][58][68] - High - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, and low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads are also provided [60][67]. - Inventory Data - Inventory data for fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, etc., are presented, along with inventory data for gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [80][87][90]. - Terminal Sales Data - In September, Singapore's ship - fuel bunkering totaled 4.765 million tons, with high - sulfur ship - fuel bunkering at 1.916 million tons and low - sulfur ship - fuel bunkering at 2.422 million tons [93].