南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251022

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Prediction and Risk Strategy Price Prediction - The predicted price range for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 10.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.8% [2] Risk Strategy - Inventory Management - 1: For planting subjects with a large demand for selling new soybeans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), the strategy is to short - sell Soybean No. 1 futures (contract A2601) to lock in planting profits when the futures price rebounds. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended entry range is above 4100 yuan [2] - Inventory Management - 2: When soybeans are concentratedly listed and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), the strategy is to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended holding range is 30 - 50 [2] - Procurement Management: For those worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to control procurement costs (short spot exposure), the main strategy is to wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long contracts A2603 and A2605, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The harvest of domestic soybeans is in the final stage. The reduction in production in southern regions has stimulated the acquisition enthusiasm of some subjects, especially for grain sources in the Northeast. Coupled with the relatively restrained selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects this year, the difficulty for enterprises to acquire soybeans has increased in the short term, leading to more price - increasing acquisitions and rising market bullish sentiment [3] - On the futures side, since the opening in October, the Soybean No. 1 futures have rebounded against the spot pressure, contrary to the usual downward - prone trend in October. The main 01 contract has rebounded from around 3900 yuan to nearly 4100 yuan. The basis in the production area has weakened significantly. However, as the futures price enters the August platform range and the hedging space increases, the short - term correction pressure on the futures price has increased [3] - At the policy level, as the price rebounds, the situation of grass - roots grain selling has improved, reducing the urgency of policy - supported storage. The selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects is scattered, and the short - term selling pressure mainly relies on market forces to resolve. The price of domestic soybeans has entered a bottom - grinding stage. The acquisition intensity of oil mills should be monitored as it will have a significant impact on the grain purchase and sales progress [3] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [3] - Soybeans have become one of the focuses of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. With China's continuous zero - import of US soybeans, it has provided emotional support to domestic soybeans [5] - The disasters in southern production areas have increased enterprises' enthusiasm for acquiring soybeans from the Northeast, providing short - term support for price rebounds [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - During the new - grain listing period, the spot pressure needs to be digested [5] - The low transaction rate of the state - reserve soybean auction (4345 tons out of 40422 tons at a reserve price of 3900 yuan) indicates that the enthusiasm for spot grain grabbing is relatively rational [5] Group 4: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 21, 2025, the basis data for different regions are as follows: in Harbin (Grade 3 domestic soybeans), the price is 3890 yuan with a basis of - 171; in Nenjiang, 3840 yuan with a basis of - 246; in Jiamusi, 3920 yuan with a basis of - 166; in Changchun, 3970 yuan with a basis of - 116 [6] Futures Price - On October 21, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of different Soybean No. 1 contracts decreased. For example, the 11 - contract decreased by 27 yuan to 4038 yuan (- 0.66%); the 01 - contract decreased by 25 yuan to 4061 yuan (- 0.61%); the 03 - contract decreased by 18 yuan to 4064 yuan (- 0.44%); the 05 - contract decreased by 12 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.29%); the 07 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4098 yuan (- 0.34%); the 09 - contract decreased by 17 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.41%) [6]