化工日报：成本端偏弱，聚酯产业链延续弱势-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].