集运日报：或因对后续运价持乐观态度，盘面持续上行，不建议加仓，设置好止损。-20251022

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market may be optimistic about future freight rates, leading to an upward trend in the market. However, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [2]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - For the arbitrage strategy, due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [2]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Market Conditions - On October 21, the main contract 2512 closed at 1769.3, up 5.10%, with a trading volume of 42,900 lots and an open interest of 28,400 lots, an increase of 2333 lots from the previous day [2]. - The SCFIS increased significantly, boosting the bullish sentiment. The market is optimistic about future freight rates, and the market fluctuated upward. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Policy and Event News - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [2]. - The Hamas delegation is discussing the next stage of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Cairo, Egypt. Hamas is committed to implementing all the terms of the Gaza cease - fire agreement. The issue of Hamas disarmament has been put on the agenda and needs to be resolved through consensus and in - depth dialogue among Palestinian political parties [2]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to adjourn the special meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), which was held from October 14 to 17, 2025, to consider and adopt the draft amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention, including the IMO net - zero framework. The special meeting will be reconvened in 12 months [2]. Trading Rules Adjustment - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].