新能源及有色金属日报：需求端难有明显改观，铜价维持震荡格局-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a neutral view of copper prices, with an expected trading range of RMB 81,600/ton to RMB 86,600/ton this week [7] Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The overall demand on the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai Copper main contract opened at RMB 85,220/ton and closed at RMB 85,400/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at RMB 85,300/ton and closed at RMB 85,020/ton, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at par to a premium of RMB 100/ton, with an average premium of RMB 50, down RMB 10 from the previous day. The copper price ranged from RMB 85,560 - 85,900/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was divided. High copper prices suppressed purchasing willingness, and it is expected that the demand will not improve under high prices, and the spot premium will remain under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Japan's new female Prime Minister, Takamori Sanae, is considering a supplementary budget to address high prices [3] Mine - end - BHP's Escondida copper mine produced 328,900 tons in Q3 2025, an 8% year - on - year increase and unchanged quarter - on - quarter. The increase was due to record processing volume and improved recovery, partially offset by lower ore grades. The 2026 fiscal year production guidance remains at 1.15 - 1.25 million tons, and the expected annual ore grade is about 0.85% [4] Smelting and Import - In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5] Consumption - In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded last week but were still below pre - holiday levels and down over 15 percentage points year - on - year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and the overall recovery space is limited [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 137,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,641 tons to 37,678 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Arbitrage and Options - Arbitrage: Put on hold - Options: Short put @ RMB 81,000/ton [7]