原油日报：全球原油装船量自9月以来大幅增加-20251022

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, mainly from the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Guyana. Guyana's loading volume increased from 700,000 barrels per day to 950,000 barrels per day after the commissioning of the Yellowtail FPSO project, with a faster - than - expected increase in shipments. Saudi Arabia's recent shipments have also increased to nearly 7 million barrels per day. Iraq's northern crude oil exports are expected to grow in the future as the recovery has not been reflected in shipping data [2]. - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 30 cents to $57.82 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 31 cents to $61.32 per barrel, a 0.51% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.64% at 439 yuan per barrel [1]. - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. The main driving factors were the narrowing year - on - year decline in gasoline prices and rising food prices. The probability that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 is over 86%. If the cut occurs, the benchmark policy rate will drop to 2.25%. Canada's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month in September, compared with a 0.1% decline in August [1]. - In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports climbed to a 29 - month high, approaching the highest level after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The four - week average export volume from its ports reached 3.82 million barrels per day, an increase of 80,000 barrels from the data for the period ending October 12, the highest since May 2023. However, exports may be approaching their peak [1]. - Malaysia's national oil company has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to jointly promote oil and gas exploration and production cooperation in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [1]. - The Russian military attacked Ukraine's energy facilities on the night of October 20 [1]. Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, with notable increases in Guyana and Saudi Arabia, and potential growth in Iraq's northern exports [2]. Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3].