新能源及有色金属日报：锌海外升水进一步走强-20251022

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View - Overseas premiums for zinc have strengthened further, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand. The previous bearish logic for zinc prices has begun to change due to macro - favorable factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $230.29 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 21,910 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures: On October 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,915 yuan/ton and closed at 21,970 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 108,521 lots, and the open interest was 130,442 lots. The highest price was 22,045 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,875 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: As of October 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,275 tons, a change of - 50 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - Overseas premiums have strengthened, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has expanded. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, leading to a decline in domestic TC. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the domestic - foreign zinc price ratio, their processing fees may also be adjusted downward. The domestic market remains in surplus, but with the opening of the export window, the accumulation of social inventory is expected to be less than expected. The comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed, and if this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, smelting enthusiasm may be dampened, and domestic supply pressure is expected to ease [5].