氯碱日报：氯碱震荡，关注宏观情绪-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The caustic soda market has a stable - to - falling spot price, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,699 yuan/ton (- 3), the East China basis was - 69 yuan/ton (+ 3), and the South China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was - 12 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 713 yuan/ton (- 91), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 553 yuan/ton (- 14), and the PVC export profit was - 0.8 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory was 36.0 tons (- 2.3), the PVC social inventory was 55.6 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 74.73% (- 7.03%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 76.10% (- 2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.14% (- 5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 55.6 tons (- 2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,375 yuan/ton (- 5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 188 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,280 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,571 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 988.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 216.28 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.33 tons (- 1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.45 tons (+ 0.34), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.40% (- 2.90%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 86.22% (- 0.10%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 66.76% (+ 0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.61% (- 1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The supply is abundant with new capacity coming on - stream and some maintenance enterprises resuming production. The demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The export has shown strong growth, but there are potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable - to - falling. The supply is expected to increase slightly with new capacity and the resumption of maintenance enterprises. The demand from the alumina industry has some uncertainties, and the non - aluminum downstream has seen an increase in operation rate. The inventory has decreased, and there is cost support [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract when the spread of V01 - 05 is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5]