燃料油日报：Dangote装置重启，低硫油局部供应压力缓和-20251022

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price has been continuously declining recently under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the fundamentals, the macro - aspect, and geopolitical policies, suppressing the overall energy sector. Due to the key window period of Sino - US and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, macro uncertainties remain, and caution is advised [1] - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a differentiation pattern where high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there is some support in its structure, but the peak demand season for power generation has ended, and the market has mixed long and short factors, with limited upward driving force based on the current valuation [1] - The recent fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are relatively weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. Under the intensifying trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks. The downstream demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive to tariff frictions. However, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery restarted on October 19, and the current operating rate is around 60%. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume from Nigeria in October is 340,000 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with the previous month. If the RFCC unit operates stably, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, options [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.11% at 2,647 yuan/ton during the day session. The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.42% at 3,072 yuan/ton during the day session [1]