碳市场系列研究报告之四：中国碳市场：市场扩容，创新产品激发市场活力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The carbon market construction has entered an expansion and development period. In March 2025, the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were included in the national carbon market, and in May 2025, four specific measures were proposed to strengthen carbon market construction [3]. - As of October 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market was 742 million tons, with a turnover of 50.461 billion yuan. Trading volume increases near the annual compliance period, and bulk trading is the main method. Carbon price declined in 2025, and the 2023 - year quota settlement was completed with a significant drop in emission intensity [3]. - Among the pilot carbon markets, Guangdong has the most regulated enterprises and is the most active in terms of trading volume. Except for Tianjin, carbon prices in other pilot areas have declined [3]. - Pilot carbon markets have innovative mechanisms. Hubei established the first provincial "electricity - carbon - finance" linkage market; Beijing refined quota repurchase principles; Chongqing realized the "carbon market - carbon offset - carbon inclusive" linkage mechanism [3][4]. - The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange promotes low - carbon development in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. It has a policy framework of government guidance, market operation, and public participation, develops 5 carbon financial products, tightens the proportion of free carbon quotas, and promotes the construction of the Greater Bay Area carbon market [4]. - The "Qin Carbon Star" in the Hengqin - Macao Cooperation Zone is an innovative product that encourages individuals to participate in low - carbon activities through carbon credits [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Carbon Market Construction: Entered the Expansion and Development Period - National Carbon Market Expansion and Policy Issuance: Since 2024, a series of carbon footprint management policies have been issued, and the national carbon market has expanded to cover steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries. The government has set goals for the future expansion of the carbon market, aiming to basically cover major industrial emission industries by 2027 and build a complete carbon market by 2030 [6][7]. - Revisions of Pilot Carbon Market Management Measures: Starting from May 2024, relevant regulations required pilot areas to improve carbon market management systems. Each pilot area has successively formulated carbon emission and trading management measures [12][13]. - Development Stages of the Carbon Market: From 2011 - 2013, China launched carbon emission trading pilot projects; from 2014 - 2019, it established the overall framework of the national carbon market; since 2020, the national unified carbon market has been officially launched, and in March 2025, the market expanded for the first time [15]. 3.2 National + Pilot Carbon Markets: Guangdong is the Most Active - Trading Volume and Turnover: As of October 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market was 742 million tons, with a turnover of 50.461 billion yuan. Trading volume increases near the annual compliance period, and bulk trading is the main method [26]. - Carbon Price: In 2024, the carbon price rose, with an average of 91.82 yuan/ton. In 2025 (from January 1 to October 20), the carbon price declined, with an average of 76.73 yuan/ton [28][29]. - Achievements: The 2023 - year quota settlement was completed, and the carbon emission intensity decreased significantly. The carbon market has achieved good emission reduction results [33]. - Pilot Areas: In 2024, Guangdong had the most regulated enterprises. Except for Tianjin, carbon prices in other pilot areas declined, and Guangdong was the most active in terms of trading volume [38][40]. 3.3 Carbon Market Innovation Mechanisms: Stimulate Market Vitality - Hubei's "Electricity - Carbon - Finance" Linkage Market: In May 2024, relevant parties in Hubei signed a coordinated agreement. The background was that the carbon emissions of regulated enterprises were calculated without deducting the green electricity part. This mechanism allows regulated enterprises to obtain low - interest loans to buy green electricity, reducing compliance costs [47][50]. - Beijing's Refined Quota Repurchase Principles: In 2024, Beijing issued relevant management measures to regulate market supply and demand through measures such as quota repurchase, aiming to address carbon price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances [52][53]. - Chongqing's "Carbon Market - Carbon Offset - Carbon Inclusive" Linkage Mechanism: In 2024, Chongqing established the "Carbon - Friendly" voluntary emission reduction system and platform. By May 2025, it had attracted over 3.7 million participants, with more than 30 low - carbon application scenarios for residents and over 208 registered enterprise users [47][56]. 3.4 Guangzhou Carbon Exchange: Promote Low - Carbon Development in the Greater Bay Area - Development History: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange has a long - standing development history, from the initial establishment to the launch of various platforms and business expansions [59]. - Policy Framework: It follows a policy framework of government guidance, market operation, and public participation, and has established a multi - industry quota trading system and innovative carbon financial tools [60]. - Transaction Volume and Carbon Price: The trading volume and carbon price in the Guangdong carbon market have been affected by factors such as the postponement of compliance time and the expansion of the national carbon market [67][71]. - Carbon Financial Products: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange has developed 5 carbon financial products, with carbon quota repurchase having the highest trading volume and turnover [72][73]. - Promotion of the Greater Bay Area Carbon Market: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange actively promotes the construction of the Greater Bay Area carbon market, conducts cooperation and exchanges with Hong Kong and Macao, and participates in relevant research projects [76][77]. - Carbon Inclusive Mechanism: The "Qin Carbon Star" in the Hengqin - Macao Cooperation Zone encourages individuals to participate in low - carbon activities through carbon credits and has attracted the participation of many low - carbon businesses [81][83].