西南期货早间评论-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be liquidated to take profits [9][10]. - Precious metals have risen significantly. After taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - Iron ore prices are supported in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss range [22]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28][29]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - For PVC, investors should focus on supply - side changes [35]. - The downside space for urea is limited [38]. - PX may adjust weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should control positions and pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policy shifts [39]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [42]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors should temporarily wait and see [49]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [53]. - For soybean meal, after adjustment, investors can consider long positions in call options at the lower support range. For soybean oil, investors can temporarily wait and see [56]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [65]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [69]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [71]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, a reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [73]. - For eggs, short positions should be held [76]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see [79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.85 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. Volatility is expected to increase, and existing long positions can be liquidated [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support prices. However, the recent increase has been large, and after taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the supply - demand relationship in the industry dominates. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and inventory pressure has increased. Prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can short - sell at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and sorted. Demand supports prices in the short - term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures significantly corrected. Coking coal supply pressure is not large, and coke prices have started to rise after two rounds of cuts. Futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and investors can buy during pullbacks [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon futures fell, and silicon - iron futures rose. Manganese ore supply has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. Production remains high, and demand is weak. There may be short - term oversupply, and investors can consider long positions at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and the global oil market may face an oversupply next year. However, there is support near the integer level, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The Asian fuel oil market is affected by sufficient supply. There are different views on the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil at the end of the year. Investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The increase in short - and medium - term maintenance expectations has driven the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The supply in Thailand is affected by rainfall, and demand has recovered. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to exports and supply reduction [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. After prices fell below the lowest level at the beginning of the year, there was a small rebound. Supply has increased, and demand has improved slightly. The downward space is limited [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load has decreased, and imports have declined. The short - term supply - demand balance has loosened, and prices may adjust weakly in a volatile manner [39]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures oscillated. Supply has increased, and demand has shown limited improvement. Processing fees have declined, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to oil prices [40][41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. Supply has increased, inventory has accumulated, and demand support is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose slightly. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand is average, and cost support is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate following costs [43][44]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures oscillated. Processing fees have increased, supply has risen, and export growth has slowed. Prices are expected to oscillate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. Supply remains at a high level, and demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US relations have eased, and the suspension of production of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Investors should temporarily wait and see [47][49]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures fell. Concerns about supply have resurfaced, but the market is still in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The soybean crushing volume has recovered, and inventory pressure remains. For soybean meal, long positions in call options can be considered after adjustment; for soybean oil, wait and see [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil prices fell. EU policies have changed, and Chinese imports have decreased. Inventory has accumulated. Investors should temporarily wait and see [57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose slightly. Chinese imports have changed, and inventory levels vary. Investors should temporarily wait and see [59][61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. Sino - US relations may improve, which is beneficial to cotton trade. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and prices are expected to remain under pressure [62][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply may be in surplus. Domestic northern regions have started sugar production. Investors should wait and see [66][68][69]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level. This year's apple production has increased slightly, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. The opening price is higher than last year. Investors should wait and see [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose. Supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. After short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [72][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and supply is increasing. Consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions should be held [74][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is under pressure, and inventory is increasing. Demand shows a slight increase. It is advisable to wait and see [77][78][79].