国泰海通晨报-20251022

Group 1: Company Overview - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929), predicting a net profit of HKD 8.064 billion, HKD 10.089 billion, and HKD 11.006 billion for the fiscal years 2026-2028, with a target price of HKD 19.68 based on a 24x PE for FY26 [2][4] - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY26Q2 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with mainland China showing a 3.0% increase and Hong Kong, Macau, and others showing an 11.4% increase [3][4] - The same-store sales turned positive across the board, with mainland China same-store sales up by 7.6%, and gold jewelry sales up by 10.6% with an average price of HKD 7,900, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [4][5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong online growth for Chow Tai Fook, with e-commerce retail in mainland China increasing by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of retail value and 15.5% of sales volume [5] - The report notes that the jewelry retail market is experiencing a structural shift, with the proportion of high-margin priced gold products in mainland China reaching 29.9%, up by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, which is expected to enhance gross margins [4][5] - The gaming industry, represented by NetDragon (0777), is also highlighted for its stable growth, with projected revenues of CNY 48.6 billion, CNY 53.1 billion, and CNY 58.4 billion for 2025-2027, driven by strong IP operations and AI integration [6][7]