新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-22）-20251022

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Log: Strong bias treatment [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak bias oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation bias strong [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market continues to face an oversupply situation, but short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. The coal and coke market is affected by macro policies and supply concerns, with the core contradiction being the low profit level of steel mills. The steel market has supply and demand contradictions and is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust. The glass market is weak, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The financial market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions in stock index futures. The precious metal market is expected to show strong bias oscillation due to various factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical risks. The forestry product market has positive factors for logs, while pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom. The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a short bias. The agricultural product market for live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The soft commodity market for rubber is expected to show wide-range oscillation, and the polyester market has different trends for each product [2][3][4][5][8][9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. However, short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. Four main lines should be closely monitored for potential price revaluation [2]. - Coking coal: Affected by macro policy expectations and supply concerns, the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. The second round of coke price increases is difficult to implement [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and prices need to cooperate with rapid inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the possibility of cold repair is increasing. The demand is dragged down by the real estate sector, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is down, and the market shows a small rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to show strong bias oscillation due to factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and physical demand [4]. Forestry Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, costs are expected to rise, demand is marginally improved, and the delivery specifications are expected to be optimized. Overall, logs are treated with a strong bias [5]. - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Oil and fat: The market is affected by factors such as high inventory, production changes, and policy expectations. It is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the production and sales of palm oil [5]. - Meal: The market faces seasonal supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American soybean growth. It is expected to oscillate with a short bias, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the import and arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price of large pigs is relatively firm, while the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. Short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather conditions, and demand is improving. Inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to show wide-range oscillation [9]. - Polyester products: Each product has different trends. PX, MEG, PR, and PF are on the sidelines, PTA oscillates, and the market for polyester bottle chips rebounds weakly [9].